Thursday, 18 February 2016
No signs of the wheels coming off the FG bus here...
In spite of most media outlets stating that the wheels were coming off the FG bus, mainly due to a modest drop in support in the latest polls, the HexMyTD view, updated using the 18th of February run from Irish Election Stats, doesn't show any real change in the real number of seats they will gain.
I will say this: a 2% change in a poll with a margin of error of 3% is NO CHANGE!
The HexMyTD view still diverges from the headline figure from Irish Election Stats. That is in the crucial divvying up of the final seat. My own view is that there will be a movement from Sinn Féin to Fianna Fáil. For example, there is a FF seat in Tipperary and they will get it at the expense of SF. Likewise in Kildare North: FF gain from SF.
I've noticed a bug in my code also and have Dún Laoghaire down as a 4 seater when it's actually a 3 seater given that the Ceann Comhairle will be automatically returned. You can move one seat from Labour to FG to adjust for that.
Final numbers on that basis is FG (57), SF (37), FF (31), Labour (7) and the rest (26).
And, finally, I've hived off Dublin in this latest incarnation to ease the geographical distortion.